All the Beirut news.

Alex,

The answer to all your questions is 42.

Fighting a war is extremely tiring, both physically and mentally. After two years of fighting with no end in sight the Syrian army is grasping for air. Even those not injured are dead tired. If about 40,000 regime soldiers/militia have died, this means that at the very least about 160,000 have been injured. More likely 200,000. Now, how does that compare to the size of the Syrian army? Do you understand why they need Iranian and Hezbollah soldiers?

Danny … how many Hezbollah fighters are operating in Syria?

How many foreign jihadists?

What’s the size of the Syrian army?

Who did Nasrallah say provided Hezbollah with their missiles in the 2006 war?

With all these militias in Syria, how do you tell one from the other?

Badr,

Exactly.

Alex, give it a rest. The bulk of the money is coming from Iran. The Russians are getting paid for everything. War costs a lot of money, money that Syria does not have. The Syrian government has no revenues and huge expenses and would be bankrupt without Iranian support.

And as the war continues, you will see more and more Iranian troops in Syria.

Camille,

Come on now. Say thank you to Iran. Without its Lebanese wing’s (HA) militia’s intervention (invasion) in Syria; your forces were as lost and losing…

The regime had zero foreign debt to pay and had a comfortable foreign reserves. Iran AND IRAQ and China and Russia are helping economically. Iran is helping with some training and support.

I won’t tell you what are the disagreements, but if you can review what Iran’s reps to the Tehran Syrian dialogue conference (a few months ago) were saying to the participants, you will realize some of those disagreements.

AIG,

OK, I got your prediction. So “The solution is the de facto partition in which Assad is maintained in power over parts of Syria by Iranian support”, even though “[w]hat exactly are the Iranians gaining from that except a big headache? Without the oil, that state is bankrupt from day one let alone the sanctions and the fact that the rich Sunnis for the most part are not going to stay and live there. It is going to be a huge burden for Iran with no clear benefit.”

Alex,

What are the disagreements between the regime and Iran?

No, it is Iranian support that is making a difference. Without Iranian support Assad would not be able to support the war effort. The regime has no revenues, not from taxes and not from exporting oil. Without the Iranian support, it will not be able to pay salaries without causing runaway inflation.

I see, after reading further, that Lena made very similar comments to what I was trying to say. Only she/he did it a lot more concisely and eloquently

[...] ad for Father’s Day by Exotica. This one is still my favorite [...]

It is mostly Russian support that is making a difference for the regime’s side. Economically, Iran and Iraq are helping. For your information, there are some serious disagreements between the regime and Iran… moderately serious.

There is no certain outcome … “division” has different shades … we are already experiencing division among the Syrian people in what they fear and in what they aspire to achieve. But division is not permanent unless it is part of a final, signed or forced, agreement.

There is a chance for every conceivable outcome and the one that will take place is the one that enough parties support. This support (direction, extent, nature) is still a variable and where the different active players settle will decide where Syria moves next.

For those who seek solutions, leaving the scene is the worst possible decision.

I honestly do not know if this is meant to be taken seriously. I don’t know who your sources are, QN, but these points you list for discussions seem to be a bit in the realm of fantasy.

Let me elaborate:

1. The opposition must end its calls to topple the regime. Ok. Fair enough. I think that one is a valid point that could possibly be compromised on not saying that it should. Or that it will be. But it’s possible.

2. Can you give me one example of “monitors agreeable to both sides” that’s ever been accepted and worked in the past? Where the losing party hasn’t come out complaining that the elections were not fair, and that the monitors were not impartial? Specially in the Middle East. You really think that is a realistic compromise that the Syrian regime and the opposition will agree to?

3. Televised negotiations: This one made me laugh out loud. In a part of the world where NOTHING is ever negotiated in public, you honestly think anyone will go for televised negotiations? This is the Arab world man! Accountability and transparency are non-existent. We don’t even have televised negotiations in Washington, where transparency and accountability are supposed to be one of the best in the world. You honestly think this can be done in the ME? What have these contacts of yours been smoking?

4. Yeah. This I can see being a semi-serious point of discussion. But this is somewhat predicated on item 1: Assad has to stay, but the opposition gets the premiership. Basically. In my mind, this would have been a feasible solution about 2 years ago. Now that so many lives have been lost in such a brutal way, I’m afraid there is too much hatred and too much radicalization (Sectarian above all) to make any kind of co-existence and reconciliation feasible. I can’t imagine how you could possibly convince the populace on either side that it’s now ok to now reach your hand out to the same people who’ve been butchering and raping and pillaging your “community”. I don’t see it.

5. Same point as 4, for me. All this talk of compromise seems like “pie in the sky” stuff at this point. I don’t see how you can get either side and their followers to compromise while having these kind of non-starter points (the main one of those being Assad staying in place). The Syrian regime is not a system that can be “tweaked” here and there to compromise with others. It has been built for 40 years around a kind of “all or nothing” approach around the Assads. I frankly don’t see how it can be made to work in any kind of watered down version. There really is no such thing as an “Assad-lite” system that would work at this point. Not after all the brutality of the past year or so.
Like I said, if this compromise talk had gone on over a year ago, before the worst of the atrocities, then yes, there could have been some room to work for both sides. But now, it’s gonna be a hard sell for either side to explain how they can compromise with each other.

Try explaining to pro-regime supporters why you’re willing to admit “takfiri terrorists, funded by Israel and KSA” into your government and giving them prime ministerial powers. Try explaining to your Alawite/Christian constituency why they shouldn’t fear Sunni extermism all of a sudden, after 2 years of brandishing those guys as bogeymen.

And on the flip side, if you’re FSA or opposition. try explaining to your supporters who have lost so much and have had their sons and daughters raped and mutilated why you are suddenly willing to accept leaving Assad the Butcher in office, just so you can get some dinky Prime Minister chair. Try explaining to your followers why these apostate Alawite shabiha who have been committing atrocities in your villages should be your best friends.

And then try explaining to your more extreme followers from Al Nusra or similar, why they should lay down their arms, and give up all they feel they’ve accomplished, while still having to accept not having religious parties in the next regime, and where they probably won’t be allowed to be part of this compromise govt.

There is simply no way any of these points listed here have a chance in hell of passing. Unfortunately.

Just being realistic here.

never eat crapito!

Hi, I log on to your new stuff on a regular basis. Your writing style
is witty, keep doing what you’re doing!

Je souffle mes trente-deux bougies dans un mois !

Je porte le joli nom de Dominique.
Mon boulot: hydrobiologiste . Je suis plutôt d’un caractère enjoué.

They mean PURÉE.

BO does not kill. Motorists do. Let’s invest in motorists awareness first

Je suis agée de 35 ans : je n’ai pas de complexe à le dire .
Ici Mathilde
je suis actuellement des études de agent de change … Je suis plutôt d’un caractère souriant.

Je suis vieille de 39 ans .
Mon nom est Belisarda.
Mon travail prof de musique . Est-ce un défaut que d’être blagueuse ?